Sunday, December 17, 2006

Calibre Energy has interesting Overview of Lipan Country Barnett Shale Challenges

The presentation puts Lipan Country in Tier 2 of the Non-Core area, and seems to heavily discount the long term economic value this far west of the thick Core Area.
Tier 2. Geographically, this area is West and South of Tier 1. (counties include parts or all of Jack, Erath, Palo Pinto, Parker, Hood, Somervell, etc). This is the riskiest area in the Barnett Shale. Conventional analysis has suggested that much of the Barnett Shale in Tier 2 has the likelihood to produce oil (uneconomic volumes) instead of gas based on the thermal maturity of the Barnett in these areas. This results in lower amounts of gas-in-place and recovery per section than the Core or Tier 1 areas. There is no long-term production performance. Uncertainties surrounding the gas window and the lower resource potential due to a thinner and shallower reservoir make widespread commercial development less certain in Tier 2. These uncertainties increase significantly as the industry tries to push the play even further West and South (into counties such as Comanche and Stephens).